August 4, 2025

In what could become one of the most extraordinary celestial events of our time, scientists say a massive asteroid might collide with the Moon — and if it does, pieces of the lunar surface could end up lighting up Earth’s skies.

The asteroid in question, known as 2024 YR4, is roughly 200 feet wide — about the height of a 15-story building. Initially spotted in late December 2024, early projections briefly raised concerns about a possible Earth impact in 2032. Thankfully, those fears have now been put to rest. But researchers have turned their attention to another potential target: the Moon.

According to a new study led by planetary scientists at the University of Western Ontario, there is a small but notable 4% chance that 2024 YR4 could slam into the Moon sometime in the coming years. If that happens, the results could be both dramatic and unprecedented.

“We’re talking about an impact that would release the energy of around 6.5 megatons of TNT,” said Paul Wiegert, the study’s lead author. “That’s enough to carve out a crater nearly two-thirds of a mile wide and launch a staggering 220 million pounds of lunar rock and dust into space.”

And Earth wouldn’t be spared from the after-effects. Wiegert and his team estimate that up to 10% of that debris could eventually make its way into our planet’s atmosphere — potentially creating a once-in-a-lifetime meteor storm.

Unlike typical meteor showers that streak brightly across the sky at incredible speeds, this “moondust meteor storm” would behave quite differently. Because the debris would be traveling slower — around 25,000 miles per hour, which is modest by meteor standards — the resulting meteors would appear fainter, longer-lasting, and far more numerous.

“Nearly every meteor you’d see in that storm would literally be a piece of the Moon,” Wiegert noted.

The lunar fragments wouldn’t arrive all at once. Instead, scientists expect a slow, steady rain of moon rock entering Earth’s upper atmosphere — possibly stretching across several days. And if the asteroid does strike, the impact itself could be visible from Earth using just binoculars or amateur telescopes.

Astronomers won’t know more until 2028, when 2024 YR4 becomes visible again after emerging from behind the Sun. Until then, they’ll continue to monitor the asteroid’s trajectory — and keep an eye on what could become one of the most mesmerizing meteor events in human history.