ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is reeling from its most punishing floods in years, with record monsoon rains and dam releases from India submerging vast tracts of farmland and industrial hubs, dealing a blow to food supplies, exports, and fragile economic recovery plans.
The government had entered 2026 with cautious optimism, banking on a projected 4.2% growth rate after securing a $7 billion IMF bailout and anticipating a rebound in farming and manufacturing. But those hopes are now fading. Officials and analysts warn the scale of destruction could surpass the 2022 disaster, when one-third of the country was underwater, as the current deluge has struck both rural fields and industrial centers simultaneously.
Satellite images reveal the scope: the GEOGLAM crop monitoring program estimates nearly 220,000 hectares of rice fields flooded between August 1 and September 16. Punjab alone has seen 1.8 million acres of farmland submerged, with officials reporting that half the rice crop and over 60% of cotton and maize have been destroyed. Losses could top one trillion rupees ($3.5 billion), according to the Pakistan Farmers Association.
“This is unlike anything in living memory,” said Iqrar Ahmad Khan, former vice chancellor of the University of Agriculture Faisalabad, who believes as much as 10% of the nation’s crops are gone, with vegetable losses in some districts above 90%. He warned that the timing could not be worse, as the sowing season for wheat Pakistan’s staple crop is in jeopardy. “Food insecurity is coming, not just higher prices,” Khan cautioned.
Economic Fallout
The devastation is already rippling through the economy. Prices of wheat, sugar, onions, and tomatoes have spiked, pushing the sensitive price index to a 26-month high. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal admitted the disaster would set back growth projections, while the central bank cut expectations to the lower end of its 3.25–4.25% range, calling the impact a “temporary but significant supply shock.”
The IMF is set to review Pakistan’s fiscal plans this week. Its representative, Mahir Binici, confirmed the floods would weigh heavily in the assessment of whether the 2026 budget and emergency measures are sufficient. Economists, however, believe policymakers are downplaying the risks. Former finance minister Hafeez Pasha estimated the current account deficit could swell by $7 billion, warning: “These floods are worse than the last.”
Factories Underwater
The crisis extends beyond fields. In Sialkot, the export hub for textiles, sporting goods, and surgical instruments, workshops remain marooned. Cotton shortfalls are expected to ripple into the textile sector, Pakistan’s top foreign exchange earner, while rice exporters fear losing ground to India as domestic prices climb.
“We had 400 acres of cotton, but only 90 survived,” said Rab Nawaz, a farmer near Multan, underscoring the magnitude of the losses.
Human Cost
The National Disaster Management Authority reports at least 1,006 deaths since June 26 and the evacuation of more than 2.5 million people in Punjab and Sindh. In Lahore, entire neighborhoods and small businesses have been gutted. Among the displaced is Mohammad Arif, a 50-year-old rickshaw driver and father of five. “Our house is gone. We have been living on the road for three days,” he said, after moving his vehicle to higher ground as floodwaters rose.
With waters yet to recede and sowing season slipping away, the question now is whether Pakistan can blunt the shocks to its food system and economy before the damage becomes irreversible.
