ISLAMABAD – July 12, 2025: While New Delhi has taken a hardline stance on suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), experts say India lacks the infrastructure to completely stop the flow of rivers into Pakistan — and any attempts to do so could ignite a dangerous conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
According to a recent investigative report published by Al Jazeera, India’s decision to “hold the treaty in abeyance” is largely symbolic and technically difficult to enforce. The report argues that, despite political posturing, India’s ability to significantly block or divert the waters of the Indus Basin is limited — at least for now.
But even minor interruptions in river flows can have serious consequences for Pakistan, a country heavily reliant on the Indus River system for agriculture and drinking water. Experts caution that any deliberate tampering with water flow could trigger a serious escalation.
“If India were to even partially obstruct the waters, it could push the region closer to open conflict,” one analyst warned, adding that Pakistan would likely interpret such actions as a breach of international obligations and a direct threat to its national security.
The issue resurfaced in April this year after a deadly attack in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) claimed the lives of 26 tourists. In the aftermath, India declared its intention to unilaterally withdraw from the IWT — a move Islamabad swiftly rejected.
Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) termed the Indian announcement a violation of international law and issued a stern warning. “Any diversion of Pakistan’s water is to be treated as an act of war,” read the NSC’s statement.
Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the 85-page Indus Waters Treaty is considered one of the most successful international water-sharing agreements. Unlike many treaties that allocate water based on total flow volumes, the IWT partitions entire rivers — granting India control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), and Pakistan rights to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).
Dr. Majed Akhter, a senior lecturer in geography at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera the treaty was essentially a “hydraulic partition” that mirrored the political division of the subcontinent. “It was crafted to resolve complex operational issues tied to Punjab’s interconnected irrigation network,” he said.
However, Dr. Akhter also pointed out that water sharing cannot be fully disentangled from the broader Kashmir dispute. “Territorial control of Kashmir directly impacts control over the headwaters of the Indus system — which is the lifeline for both Pakistan and India’s agrarian economies,” he explained.
The possibility of using water as a political weapon has long loomed over Indo-Pak relations, but this latest flare-up has pushed the debate back into the global spotlight. Analysts say that while India may not be able to walk out of the treaty overnight, its aggressive rhetoric and policy shifts are increasing instability in an already volatile region.
As tensions mount, international observers are urging both sides to exercise restraint and keep vital water resources out of the geopolitical battlefield.
