UN-OCHA warns of below-normal rainfall in northern regions and possible weather extremes across the country
Pakistan may be heading toward one of its coldest winters in decades, with global weather patterns signaling a sharp drop in temperatures triggered by the La Niña phenomenon, according to a new report released by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG).
The report, published under the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA), cautions that La Niña could bring colder-than-normal weather across large parts of Pakistan a worrying sign for flood-hit communities still struggling to recover. The impacts are expected to be especially severe in the mountainous regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), where winter conditions are already harsh.
La Niña develops when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean cool abnormally, disturbing global weather systems and often resulting in extreme temperature fluctuations. According to the report’s October forecast, marginally negative phases of both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to shape Pakistan’s rainfall and temperature trends this season.
“Northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan may experience below-normal rainfall,” the report noted. “Meanwhile, southern parts of the country including Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab are likely to see near-normal precipitation.”
The potential consequences are wide-ranging. The report warns of possible disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting, an increased risk of dengue outbreaks in stagnant water areas, and a heightened threat of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in northern regions. Additionally, reduced river inflows could hurt irrigation, while persistent smog and poor air quality might worsen in urban centers. Livestock health and fodder supplies could also be affected as temperature patterns shift unpredictably.
Pakistan, the report adds, is already grappling with a “deepening post-flood crisis” characterized by weakened response capacity and rising threats to food security. While both government and humanitarian partners responded swiftly during the initial flood phase, the report highlights that resources and presence on the ground have significantly diminished since then.
“Emergency funds and pre-positioned stocks have been exhausted,” the report said, “and additional funding is urgently required to maintain basic services during the transition from emergency relief to early recovery.”
A geo-spatial analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) paints an alarming picture: nearly 1.2 million hectares of farmland in Punjab Pakistan’s agricultural heartland have been inundated. The floods have severely damaged rice, cotton, and sugarcane crops, just as farmers were preparing for the Rabi planting season.
“Entire fields were submerged, harvests destroyed, and vital farming equipment swept away,” the FAO assessment revealed. “With livestock lost and fodder supplies depleted, countless families now face the daunting challenge of rebuilding their livelihoods from scratch.”
As La Niña continues to influence regional weather systems, experts warn that Pakistan must brace for a bitterly cold and potentially disruptive winter, one that could test both its resilience and preparedness amid ongoing economic and humanitarian pressures.
