Monday, June 23, 2025 — Gold prices stayed under pressure during early European trading, hovering near the lower end of the daily range, as modest strength in the US Dollar (USD) kept buyers on the sidelines. The precious metal faced renewed selling interest, largely due to the Federal Reserve’s continued hawkish tone, which has reinforced the appeal of the dollar over non-yielding assets like gold.
Still, escalating geopolitical tensions—especially in the Middle East—have added a layer of uncertainty, limiting gold’s downside for now. The situation remains fluid following a major escalation over the weekend.
In a dramatic turn, the United States launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan early Sunday. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned the strikes as “outrageous” and warned of “everlasting consequences.” He pledged that Iran would defend itself not just against the U.S. but also against what he called “reckless aggression” from Israel.
US President Donald Trump responded with a stark warning, saying any retaliatory move would be met with even greater force. “There will either be peace or tragedy,” Trump said—an ominous message that raises concerns of a broader regional conflict. The heightened geopolitical tension continues to lend support to gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of crisis.
At the same time, mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve have added further complexity. While the Fed still sees two rate cuts later this year, officials are now projecting only one 25-basis-point cut in both 2026 and 2027. Concerns over inflation—especially with the Trump administration’s trade tariffs back in play—are giving the dollar strength, capping gold’s gains for now.
Looking ahead, traders are eyeing the release of global flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for fresh clues on economic health. These figures, along with any new geopolitical developments, could influence risk sentiment and trigger a breakout from the narrow trading range gold has seen over the past week.
Technical Outlook: Cautious Bearish Bias, but Key Levels in Focus
From a charting perspective, gold’s recent pullback has brought it close to breaking below its short-term ascending trend channel. A firm move below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) could open the door to further declines.
Momentum indicators are signaling weakness—daily charts are losing bullish steam, while hourly indicators suggest growing bearish momentum. If selling pressure picks up, gold could slip toward the $3,323–$3,322 support zone, and possibly test sub-$3,300 levels in the near term.
On the upside, the $3,400 level has now become a key resistance barrier. A sustained move above that could push gold toward the $3,434–$3,435 region, and even up to $3,451–$3,452—levels last seen about two months ago. If bulls regain control, the $3,500 mark would be the next major target, though technical resistance from the upper channel boundary may prove tough to crack.
For now, the gold market remains caught between macroeconomic forces and geopolitical flashpoints. While the dollar’s strength limits upside momentum, rising global tensions may continue to keep a floor under prices.
