KARACHI — The Pakistani rupee could see a gradual depreciation over the next year, with projections suggesting it may fall as low as Rs. 290–295 against the US dollar by the end of 2026, according to a recent report by Topline Securities.
The brokerage firm expects the exchange rate to remain between Rs. 285 and Rs. 290 by June 2026 before slipping further toward Rs. 295 by December. Analysts say the currency’s movement will largely depend on the government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline, sustain economic reforms, and boost foreign inflows through remittances and exports.
Topline anticipates remittances to grow by 7.5 percent, reaching around US$41.2 billion — a figure that aligns with the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) own targets. Meanwhile, the current account deficit is projected to stay relatively contained, between 0.25 and 0.75 percent of GDP, or roughly US$2.5–3.5 billion.
The report further noted that inflation is expected to hover between 6.5 and 8 percent during FY26–FY27, factoring in an exchange rate of around Rs. 299 per dollar and moderate increases in fuel, electricity, and gas tariffs.
On the fiscal front, the deficit is projected to widen slightly to 4.6 percent of GDP higher than government expectations due to flood-related spending and lower-than-expected revenues. However, analysts believe that continued structural reforms, improved liquidity conditions, and growing investor confidence could help stabilize the rupee and prevent any sharp decline.
Economists maintain that while the rupee may weaken modestly, a complete freefall is unlikely unless Pakistan faces another external financing shock.
