ISLAMABAD — The federal government has unveiled an ambitious three-year economic roadmap aimed at accelerating growth and strengthening key sectors of the national economy. Under the new Macroeconomic and Fiscal Framework issued by the Ministry of Finance, Pakistan is targeting a GDP growth rate between 4.2% and 5.7% over the next three years.
The plan envisions expanding the size of the economy to Rs162,513 billion, boosting exports by more than $10 billion, and pushing remittances to an all-time high of $44.82 billion. Officials say the strategy focuses on sustainable growth through increased exports, higher remittances, and improved tax revenue collection.
According to the framework, Pakistan’s total exports are expected to rise from $44.83 billion to $55 billion by the end of the three-year period. Exports of goods are projected to reach $42.69 billion, while services exports, including IT-related sectors, are expected to touch $12.24 billion.
For the current fiscal year, the export of goods is estimated at $35.28 billion, with services exports projected at $8.38 billion. Meanwhile, imports are likely to climb by around $14.5 billion, reaching $79.71 billion.
The government’s outlook also highlights steady growth in workers’ remittances, which are forecast to jump from $39.43 billion this year to $44.82 billion within three years the highest in Pakistan’s history.
However, external challenges remain. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated Pakistan’s growth rate at 3.6% for the ongoing fiscal year, slightly above its internal staff projections of 3% to 3.5%, made during recent discussions with Pakistani authorities. IMF officials reportedly believe that last year’s floods have weighed heavily on the agricultural sector, slowing the recovery of major Kharif crops.
In contrast, the World Bank has projected a modest 2.6% growth rate for Pakistan this year, while the government has already revised its target down from 4.2% to 3.5%, acknowledging the challenges facing the economy.
Even in the medium term, IMF assessments suggest that Pakistan’s growth is unlikely to surpass 4.5%, unless there is a meaningful rise in exports and foreign investment.
Despite these hurdles, officials at the Ministry of Finance remain optimistic. The IMF’s Executive Board is expected to review and approve the third tranche of $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) in December, along with an additional $200 million in climate financing through the Climate Resilience Financing mechanism.
The staff-level agreement between Pakistan and the IMF was finalized on October 15, and government officials are confident that the next installment under the ongoing loan program will be released as planned offering a much-needed boost to Pakistan’s economic stability.
