HYDERABAD (Sept 1, 2025): Rising water levels in Punjab’s rivers have put Sindh on edge as authorities brace for a possible super flood of up to 900,000 cusecs. With memories of the devastating 2010 floods still fresh, the provincial government has declared the protection of lives, livestock, and key infrastructure its top priority.
Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah, while inspecting barrages and embankments in Sukkur and Larkana on Sunday, warned that the entire riverine belt of Sindh could soon be inundated. He expressed hope that the water level would not exceed 900,000 cusecs but admitted that the unpredictable nature of floods leaves no room for complacency.
Recalling the 2010 disaster, Shah noted that Sindh had then prepared for a flow of 650,000 to 700,000 cusecs at Guddu Barrage, but the torrent swelled to 1.15 million cusecs. That catastrophe left more than 400 people dead, displaced millions, destroyed homes and crops, killed livestock, and caused economic losses exceeding Rs373 billion.
Displacement Estimates and Relief Measures
The provincial government has mapped vulnerable populations along the river. According to estimates, around 459,000 people between Guddu and Sukkur barrages would be affected if the flow reaches 900,000 cusecs or more. Even with a lower discharge of 500,000 to 700,000 cusecs, more than 130,000 people and 21,000 families are likely to face displacement.
Authorities have planned to establish 948 relief camps, though Shah admitted that only about 514 could realistically be set up. Two Pakistan Navy teams are already stationed on the riverbanks, with more to be deployed if required. The chief minister also said the army would be called in if the situation worsens.
Waiting on Punjab’s Peak Flow
Irrigation experts remain uncertain about how much water will ultimately reach Guddu. The CM explained that clearer figures would be available once peak flows from the Chenab and Jhelum rivers pass Trimu in Punjab. From there, the surge takes three days to reach Panjnad the confluence of Punjab’s rivers and another two days to reach Sindh.
By Sunday afternoon, the flow had dropped from 855,000 cusecs at Chiniot to 435,000 cusecs at Trimu, as water spread into Punjab’s plains. Shah expressed cautious optimism that this trend might reduce the eventual impact on Sindh.
Vulnerable Embankments Under Watch
Officials have identified six sensitive embankments between Guddu and Sukkur. The Qadirpur Shaink bund in Ghotki (left bank) and the KK bund (right bank) are of greatest concern. While both structures withstood a flow of 550,000 cusecs last week, experts fear they may not survive the strain of 900,000 cusecs.
Shah explained that although the Shaink bund is reinforced by a loop bund, people living between the two embankments would still be at risk if water levels rise further. He urged residents of low-lying riverine villages to evacuate voluntarily and cooperate with the authorities, while also requesting the media to avoid spreading panic.
Monitoring and Long-Term Rehabilitation
Sindh Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro and Secretary Irrigation Zareef Khehro briefed the CM that more than 5,300 staff members have been deployed along vulnerable embankments. Sensitive points including Qadirpur Shaink, Qadirpur loop, Raonti, Baiji, and RN levees are under constant watch.
Meanwhile, rehabilitation of the Guddu Barrage, which began in 2017, is 72 percent complete. Shah directed that the long-delayed project including gate repairs and installations must be finished by March 2026 without further delays.
Despite the looming threat, the chief minister struck a hopeful tone, saying the province was better prepared than in 2010. “We are fully mobilized to protect our people, infrastructure, and agriculture from any eventuality,” he said.
