Pakistan’s road to the Asia Cup 2025 final has become increasingly complicated following their loss to arch-rivals India in the Super Four stage. While Babar Azam’s side is still in the race, their qualification now hinges heavily on net run rate (NRR) and the outcomes of other fixtures.
Despite having two games left, even back-to-back wins may not guarantee Pakistan a spot in the final, while in certain permutations, a single victory might still be enough. Much will depend on how the remaining matches unfold.
Possible Scenarios
If India dominate the Super Four and win all three matches, Pakistan’s fate could rest on NRR. For instance, should Pakistan defeat Bangladesh but fall short against Sri Lanka, then India would qualify with three wins while the other three sides would finish with one victory each. In that case, NRR would decide the second finalist.
Another twist emerges if Pakistan beat both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India defeat Sri Lanka, but Bangladesh manage to upset India. That scenario would leave India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh tied on two wins each again pushing qualification to net run rate.
The most straightforward outcome for Pakistan would be if both they and India win their remaining matches. In that case, India would progress with three wins, Pakistan with two, Bangladesh with one, and Sri Lanka would finish winless. That would set up a much-anticipated Pakistan-India final on September 26.
India’s Dominant Display
Pakistan’s hopes took a major hit on Sunday in Dubai, where they managed 171 for 5 before India chased the target down with 7 balls to spare. Abhishek Sharma stole the show with a blistering 74 off 39 balls, while Shubman Gill provided strong support with 47 from 28. Their partnership propelled India to a six-wicket victory and further boosted their net run rate advantage.
Bangladesh Edge Sri Lanka
In the other Super Four clash, Bangladesh edged past Sri Lanka in a nail-biting finish. Chasing 169, Bangladesh crossed the line by four wickets with just one ball left, courtesy of half-centuries from Saif Hassan (61) and Towhid Hridoy (58). Mustafizur Rahman’s 3 for 20 proved decisive, although Sri Lanka’s Dasun Shanaka kept the game alive with an unbeaten 64 off 37 deliveries.
This result has left the qualification race wide open, ensuring that NRR will likely play a defining role in deciding the finalists.
Remaining Fixtures
- September 23: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Abu Dhabi)
- September 24: India vs Bangladesh (Dubai)
- September 25: Pakistan vs Bangladesh (Dubai)
- September 26: India vs Sri Lanka (Dubai)
